Is Trump’s trade war saving American jobs – or killing them?

With the U.S.-China trade war intensifying, there is a lot of talk about whether tariffs save American jobs – as President Donald Trump claims – or destroy them.

On May 14, for example, Trump said his tariffs helped save the U.S. steel industry. Whether or not that’s true, many economists and industry organizations argue trade protectionism is actually hurting workers in a range of other areas, such as the solar power sector, civil aircraft and auto manufacturing.

So is the trade war making Americans better off or worse? Political economists like me have been exploring this question since Trump’s trade war began about a year ago. The answer makes a big difference to the economic welfare of American workers. And, with the 2020 elections soon approaching, it may help determine whether Trump is able to remain in the Oval Office.

Some parts of the manufacturing industry have experienced jobs growth during the trade war. Reuters/Ann Saphir

The winners

At first glance, the jobs data does look good for Trump’s argument.

Since Trump announced tariffs on more than 1,000 Chinese products on April 3, 2018, about 2.6 million new jobs have been added to the U.S. economy.

This includes 204,000 jobs in manufacturing, the sector of the economy that hemorrhaged over 5 million positions from 2000 to 2009, a problem blamed on free trade and China.

The good news for Trump doesn’t stop there. Some of the biggest gainers over the last year are industries like fabricated metals, machinery and electronic instruments, all of which saw gains of 15,000 to almost 30,000 jobs over the past year. All those industries enjoy at least some protection from Trump’s tariffs.

Those numbers seem to support Trump’s rhetoric that tariffs are providing a vital shot in the arm of America’s ailing manufacturing sector. And they may even show why the U.S. economy continues to hum despite economist fears that a trade war would hurt growth.

The auto industry is among those that have been hurt by tariffs on steel imports. Reuters/William DeShazer

The losers

Unfortunately, not all industries are enjoying the same success.

Of the 20 major manufacturing categories in the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data, only six have grown faster during the trade war – which arguably began with the threat of widespread tariff increases in April of 2018 – than in previous years. The rest, which include chemicals, paper and textiles, either didn’t enjoy a boost or lost ground during the period.

And here is one lesson from the trade war. If Trump and his supporters want to claim that tariffs helped accelerate job creation in machinery and metals, then it follows that his policies should share some of the blame for the less encouraging performance of other sectors hurt by retaliation from other countries.

After Trump extended steel tariffs to the European Union, the EU hit America’s textiles industry. Canada targeted some paper products in retaliation for tariffs on steel and softwood lumber. And China, Trump’s primary antagonist, hit chemicals along with a large swath of other industries – with further retaliation on the way.